Some thoughts on Kansas City's 2008 Murder Count

  There has been a lot of buzz among the local media folks about the final 2008 murder count.

KCTV 5 reports that KC's killings near 10 year high! 2008's 127 homicides was one short of 2006's 128 Homicides. Noting that the actual record for killings in KCMO was in 1993, with 153 homicides.

What's amazing is the lack of perspective these articles contain regarding the murder rate.

Here's a look at the National Homicide (and Robbery) trends over the past 50 years -- this is based on murders per 100,000 people, so has been adjusted for population increases.

 

So if you look at the national trend data, the entire country saw a huge spike in homicides (and robbery) in the early 1980s, foollwed by a small dip, and then a big increase again in the early 1990s. Then, after over a decade of declines, have seen a small increase in homicides beginning in 2006.

What's amazing about all of the alarm in that is coming from these numbers is that the increase is completely predictable.

According to numbers by the Bureau of Justice, persons between the age of 18-24 are twice as likely as any other age group to murder someone -- followed next by persons 25-35 and then 14-17.

What's interesting, is if you look at US Census Data with population estimates by age, you can see they nearly identically mirror the crime data:

The number of 15-24 year olds spiked in 1980 -- making up 19% of the total people in the US, with a total of 42.5 million people.

By 1995, this number had decreaded to 36.6 million, making up 14% of the total US population.

By 2001, this number had lifted back up to 40 million, but with the overall population increasing, was still at 14% of the total US population.

Meanwhile, if you look at more recent information, in 2008, the number of persons 15-24 is at 42.4 million -- making up just under 15% of the total US population. 

So the moral of the story, as the population of 15-24 year olds goes, the propensity of violent crime tends to follow. 

So with Kansas City, MO seeing growth in its population, and the national trend is of growth in the 15-24 year olds that are most likely to be responsible for violent crimes, it is HIGHLY forseeable that we'd see an uptick in the murder rate.  And we have. Meanwhile, based on our current trend data, I'd expect this to continue to be high for the next 5 years or so, and then we will start to see a decline again (so tip to the next round of politicians, run on the crime platform, and you will likely succeed).

It's just maddening when the media reports these numbers without much of a basis for the larger picture of what is happening with population trends, demographic trends, and what is happening nationally.  When put into perspective, it isn't a forcast that the sky is falling.

Does this mean that we should ignore the increase in homicides?  Certainly not. But being aware of what is driving the increase is certainly a good first step in trying to stop it.  Kansas City would also be wise to look at what some other cities are doing to actually buck this trend -- as some are seeing a decrease in murders.

Comments

[Midtownman]

Great theory but, the killers and the killed all seem to be from only two zip codes in third district. It is not where the population is growing and the racial make up of those involved would show more of a spread if your theory was correct. The reality is that alternatives do not exist or are not perceived, and there is not a viable intervention process in Kansas City. Read the Kansas City Task Force report and then come back with the truth.

[Brent]

The two primary zip codes of concern would be 64127 and 64128.

64127 has actually seen it's population increase from 20,831 in 2000 to 21,232 in 2007. Not a huge increase, but one nonetheless. It should also be noted that the average age in this zip code is VERY young, at 30.7 years as the average age, whereas the state average is 36.1.

http://www.city-data.com/zips/64127.html

64128 has increased from 14,774 in 2000, to 15,059 in 2007. Again, the average age is 34.2 -- which is below the state average.

http://www.city-data.com/zips/64128.html

Certainly there are a lot of factors involved here -- especially race and poverty. However,these have (sadley) remained fairly constant over the past couple of decades. Crime has never had an even distribution throughout the city and has stayed in these poorer neighborhoods. However, violent crime trends have consistently followed population trends over the past 60 years -- even if the crime is not evenly distributed.

We certainly need to work on solving the problem. We need to improve the schools, we need to increase the number of police officers on the streets, we need to improve the job opportunities (or the transit options for people to get to job opportunities). None of this will be possible if we waive our arms in the air saying the sky is falling! and scare people into moving their residences and/or jobs to KCMO. We have to increase the tax base if we are to improve any of those key factors (just raising taxes will have the opposite effect).

If we don't put the increase into perspective, and just waive our arms in the air as if the sky is falling, we will discourage people from moving to the city, keep us from increasing the tax base, and thus, keeping us from being able to help solve the problem.

None of this absolves us from the need to improve the situation...dramatically.

[MichelleD]

Midtownman,

Why don't you go ahead and post "the truth" that you speak of? There is an intervention process going on in Chicago and despite that, their murders increased this year.

Does that mean the intervention process didn't work? No. It means there isn't a silver bullet that is going to fix the problem and we need a hollistic approach. Nowhere is it stated that demographics is the ONLY issue at play.

And based on the overall picture, things are actually improving despite the media fear mongering.