The media today made a big deal out of the overnight rise in gas prices. A regular gallon of gas is now $3.63 here in Kansas City. This leads to a lot of questions. One is, why does everyone seem surprised by this when the price of gas has been steadily trending upward for the past 6 years. (you may have to pick the 6 year trend data at the top of the chart).
You may alwo ask why people are so upset by this. People in general say they want to be environmentally conscious, and want to "go green" and yet people are upset when gasoline (a non-renewable resource) prices go up -- yet a gallon of gas is still less expensive than a gallon of milk (a renewable resource).
Those questions aside, there are some things that the rising gas prices mean for Kansas City -- if people are paying attention.
1) Gas prices are likely to continue to go up. If prices continue the way they have been going (and there is no reason to think they won't), we'll be looking at $5.50-$6 gasoline by 2012.
2) Even Kansas Citians, who have an afinity for their automobiles, will change their driving habits at $5.50 per gallon. These changed habits will come in several forms.
3) This means: more time shopping in their neighborhoods vs regional shopping destinations. This could change the way we look at zoning an land use as demand for shopping, retail, and restaurants actually in neighborhoods vs in major regional dining centers. It also may mean that KCMO's surplus in regional shopping destinations may already be archaic.
4) More people shopping/dining in their neighborhoods will mean more people walking. Which means less need for parking -- ie Kansas City's 1940s parking mandates for huge amounts of parking for businesses. This also means that with less parking available, parking prices will go up.
5) People are going to want alternative forms of transportation. Yes, this means better bus systems, and light rail.
6) In leui of public transit or driving, more people will turn to walking and biking to work places -- meaning companies should look at putting in shower facilities in offices and safe/convenient places to park bikes. The city also needs to put in more safe bike lanes for bicyclists.
7) People are going to want to live closer to where they work. This means that KCMO has a huge opportunity to attract more, upscale residents that want to live closer to downtown jobs. It also means that if the city doesn't improve resident satisfaction with city services, improve its schools, and create good situations for busineses to stay in downtown and the urban core, we risk losing businesses to the suburbs as companies move closer to their employee base.
8) There may also be increased demand for regional rail transportation via services like Amtrak as driving between major cities may be more cost-prohibitive. So it's good that the State of Missouri is investing in improving the Amtrak service across the state.
There are a lot of opportunities for companies and the city if we notice that this isn't a "new" trend of increased gas prices -- but the direction it's heading. It doesn't take much to look at places like Europe, which have had $5 gasoline for a long time to see the widespread use of bicycles, public transportation and eurorail -- as well as strong city centers -- to see what this would mean in the US. We can either ignore the trends, or prepare for them. It won't be going away.
Meanwhile, use the increase in gas prices to take advantage of next week's car-free challenge and see how doable it is for your lifestyle.
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