Myth Busting: Is the Fourth of July the biggest day for lost dogs?

You can't have an Independence Day without frequent news stories about the huge influx of dogs that come into shelters due to fear of fireworks. Really, you can find the similar story in almost every city in the United States. 

Meanwhile, Emily Weiss, who a big fan of myth-busting, disputed these claims over at the ASPCA Pro.

One thing that I've for sure learned about Animal Welfare is that unsubstantiated claims and myths are common and that challenging these claims instead of taking them at face value is a good thing. Some examples of common practices or sayings that have proven to be false are that black cats shouldn't be adopted out around Halloween, that only 1  in 600 pit bulls in shelters finds a loving family, or that one unaltered cat will have 420,000 (or a bajillion) offspring. 

So, I wanted to see for myself what happens at OUR shelter for the fourth of July -- to see what really happens. I am not one to rush to just assume something is true, but I will say, it SEEMS that intake goes up around the 4th of July.

So the following are the numbers of dogs that came into our shelter from any source for the months of June and July, and the individual days surround July 4th:

June: 578 total dogs (19.2 avg per day)

July: 589 total dogs (19 avg per day)

June 29: 16 dogs

June 30: 30

July 1: 18

July 2: 16

July 3: 18

July 4: 20

July 5: 14

July 6: 19

July 7: 26

July 8: 26

July 9: 28

July 10: 18

So, there are a lot of ways you can interpret the data -- which is why I'm leaving it out there for anyone to interpret on their own (and please share thoughts).  And obviously, nothing happens in a complete vacuum, as there are always other factors at play, but here are a few of my thoughts:

1) I was a little surprised that there wasn't a notable increase in intake the days leading up to the 4th of July as many people in our community begin shooting off fireworks the week before the holiday. Yet, the average for the 5 days prior to the 4th was only 19.6 dogs per day -- a statistically insignificant difference from the monthly average.

2) There was not a huge surge in intake on the 4th of July, or the 5th. The average for these two days was 17 - so lower than the average for either June or July.  It is important to note that our animal control was running on a lighter-than-normal staff due tot he holiday (and the 5th being a Sunday) and thus, the lower numbers of officers on the ground may have artificially kept numbers down those two days. 

3) There was a noticable increase in intake though on the 7th, 8th and 9th. This could have been that dogs that ran off scared on the 4th and were finally venturing out for food/water. Or it could be that people who found lost dogs in their neighborhood tried for several days to find the owner before bringing them to the shelter. Or it could be a complete coincidence (which seems a bit unlikely). 

4) The average dog intake for the dates the 5th-9th was 22.6 dogs per day. For the 6th-9th, it was 24.75 dogs per day. This translates as a 15% or 25% increase in intake depending on the figures you use.

Conclusion

The numbers are admittedly a small data-set given that it only represents one shelter for one year, but based on these numbers, it does appear as if there is an increase in dogs coming into the shelter following the 4th of July holiday.  This increase may not happen on the actual 4th of July, and there may be a delay of a few days before the increase comes. But the increase does exist in this limited data-set.

However, the increase is somewhat manageable - -at 15-25% -- and not the straymaggedon that is so often forecast. This appears to be somewhat consistent with what I hear from shelter directors in other parts of the country.

And, it could be, that education efforts around the nation and in our community have led to people taking extra precautions for the holiday. If that's case, it's great news and keep up the good work

But for now, based on my very limited data set, I will conclude that the comments about increase in lost pets for the Fourth of July is TRUE, but with the reservation that it is not as extreme as many people make it out to be.

Do you have numbers from your shelter or animal control division?  What are your thoughts? 

Comments

[db]

Thoughts only, no numbers. Our local Lost and Found Facebook page (run by volunteers with no affiliation to either animal control or the humane society)appears to post more lost/found pets during the July 4th holidays. I can understand the range of dates since we have folks (idiots) starting with fireworks before the 4th and continuing afterward. I also think that your ideas about animals hiding or people trying on their own to find/reunite animals is probably reasonable. I'd really like to see the FACTS about the black cats and pits, too.

[Kathy Pobloskie]

Thanks Brent for this post because you have put some thought into it and taken into account some of the variables that occur. I thought I would check our Wisconsin numbers for 5 different timeframes and I think the results are interesting. Of course, dogs scared by fireworks often do not end up in shelters, especially at first, because they often hunker down and hide for several days. These are the number of lost and found dogs reported to our organization, Lost Dogs of Wisconsin during 4 different weeks this summer. We are a young organization and many people still do not know about us and may not file a report with us for several days after they have lost or found a dog. But our numbers while trending upwards as we become more well known, tend to stay pretty consistent. Except for the week of the July 4th weekend which has consistently shown a large increase, during each of the 5 years we have been in existence.
Jun 25 - July 1 : 70
July 2 - July 8 : 135
July 9 - July 15: 87
July 16 - July 22: 89
July 30 - August 5: 70

[Susan Taney]

These are the number of lost and found dogs reported to Lost Dogs Illinois during the same time frame as Lost Dogs of Wisconsin. We have also experienced the same pattern.

June 25 - July 1: 194
July 2 - July 8 : 288
July 9 - July 15: 214
July 16 - July 22: 167
July 23 - July 29 : 120